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How to play Lil Devil
As of 3 pm ET, the Rams had odds of 64% on Kalshi to upend the Niners in Melbourne. For a trader who risks $100, a Rams’ win would return $150.15. The Rams, which added Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie in the offseason, are considerable favourites to capture Super Bowl LXI in February.
With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.
What is Lil Devil?
The investing and news site announced last week that it halted an arrangement in which it used Polymarket prediction market data for a dedicated hub on the website.
That relationship ended in April, just six months after it started. Yahoo Finance confirmed the end of that agreement to Bloomberg but noted that Polymarket remains an advertising partner.
“The new hub will display probability data from Polymarket for key economic, government, & market outcomes,” said Polymarket in a post on X last November. “Each probability view will be paired with related news, quotes, & analysis from Yahoo Finance + its partners. By combining trusted data with in-depth analysis, the hub will empower investors to make smarter, more strategic prediction market investments.”
How to play Lil Devil
This can be difficult, however, as Atucha explains some larger platforms entering LatAm will only work with tier 1 operators, rather than helping smaller companies develop. “It’s challenging because first, whatever you would consider a tier 3 or a tier 2 or even a startup in an emerging market like Latin America can eventually become a tier 1 operator,” Atucha suggests.
“We’ve got lots of cases, EstrelaBet being one of them. They started from nothing and they grew a lot. And probably platform suppliers will have ignored them and regret that later on. You’ve got lots of cases like that.”
Atucha suggests global scale is only an advantage for international operators when it is executed with a local perspective. Having been in the Peruvian market since 2008, Betsson boasts considerably more local experience than a newer international entrant. “We have seen it all,” Rossi says.
